As every capable youths are moving to foreign countries for a better future, only frustrated youths will remain in Nepal. Because of this, these small number of frustrated youths have to take care of the overwhelming dependent population. Businesses are likely to shut down decreasing tax / revenue source of the government making government jobs and pensions unsafe too. With the world shifting towards green energy, if mid-west doesn’t create alternative revenue sources, remittance of Nepal is likely to fall down as well. In 15-20 years, I see a catastrophic calamity in Nepal, if it doesn’t change.
What are your thoughts? Do you think differently?
View on r/Nepal by Glum_Damage_7880
Related:
I’ve been posting about this topic for a long time on this sub, but I still wouldn’t doompost as hard as this.
Nepal is set for a decline, but not a collapse at this rate. But what does this actually mean?
It means we will not become a high income, highly developed economy, but one that is stuck in the Middle Income Trap.
We will still be able to institute a Social Welfare State to cover our ageing population, but it will not be as beneficial to the general populace, as if could’ve been with the right growth.
The future is less Afghanistan, but more like Portugal or Argentina. Where we have a State, young people still migrate abroad, but we are still not a Least Developed Country.
The only things I foresee that might pose a problem, is the land bubble bursting, but at that point that is more the fault of Capitalism than anything else.
As well as climate change forcing a migrant crisis from Northern India, whilst Glacial floods and hill droughts exarcebate.
Both challenges that are possible to tackle and mitigate, if we the populace demand it.
It is what it is.
More i age the more i realise that this country was a dream of singular guy. Country born out of conquest. And the royal family was the only thing maintaining social cohesion. Now thats gone.
Its free for all. Rob, loot , hoarde. Everything is free
It is kind of a paradox. The country’s situation is bad because youths are leaving and the youths are leaving because country’s situation is bad. I have nothing on those who tried hard but couldn’t achieve and had to move abroad or those whose financial situation is bad. I am a bit frustrated because in my case when i wanted to establish business my partner wanted to go abroad. My friend’s situation was good and could get good jobs and could work on our plan but still decided to leave. Upon asking why my friend was leaving and dropping the business he/she wasn’t even sure. I am frustrated on those youths who had capacity but leaving countries for the sake of insta story. I mean he/she could have worked and earn name but left and wasn’t sure why. That led me to hold my business as well.
Past kehi month dekhi duita type ko posts xan ki bidesh janxu ki desh barbad bhayo. Timiharu useful kura aru kei garna jandainau ?
This is a kind of self fulfilling prophecy.
Nepal isn’t going to just fall apart just yet. The rise of India and the ascent of China as the global superpower means the shifting of the economic center towards this part of the world. With our 300 years of history being economically backwards and severely underdeveloped, it is natural for us to take some time to recover and make progress. Of course, covid has hurt and it is going to take another couple of years to get fully back to normal, the economy will then start growing at a steady rate.
The growth Nepal has experienced in infrastructure and economy in the past 5-6 years although seemingly insignificant, is the greatest it has ever been in almost two centuries. We were literally the poorest country in the post-war world and we have been playing catch-up with the rest of the world ever since so the current state is not all that surprising. The debt-to-GDP which regularly shot up to 60-70% pre 2000 now sits at around 40. Although unreliable, remittance is a source of growth which is understandable for a country like ours. Ww now have better apparatus to manage our debt and have been able to reduce the share of external debt.
The current economic state of our country and its poor development for over 200 years does not permit us to be able to create good opportunities for all the labour we have at our disposal hence the exodus of youth. But we have been making progress. Last year, we exported $40M worth of IT services which is not a lot but is a fair start and an indication that we are catching up with the rest of the world.
Here are a few things we need to do:
Focus on infrastructure: build fast transport systems(expressways ) as countries have done towards the onset of their rapid development.
Make development work independent of politics: What I mean by this is not to undertake any groundbreaking projects just because of the political gain it will give to some people. Examples being the two airports in Lumbini and Pokhara which were built withput plan, solely for political leverage. This in turn, has hampered the progress of a well planned and very essential airport in Nijgadh which is ultimately indispensible given the congestion of TIA and the risk involved.
Bring in the sweet FDI: Develop the productive forces, bring in investment into manufacturing primarily but also energy and infrastructure. Efficient transportation systems is a must for this too.
Maintain political stability: The country can’t afford a change in systems, plans and strategies every few years. These will only drag us further back.
Capitalise on remittance: Remittance is a crucial driver of growth but we should be docused on utilizing that capital on building up production. Investing in agriculture, technology, infrastructure and industries will help. The exodus of youth is happening anyways, so why not capitalize on it. This has happened in every developing country, China serves as a great example. Chinese students and workers who once used to migrate to other countries and never return, are now returning and applying their knowledge in China for China. This has happenes in a lot of other countries too. Once oppotunities open up, people will tend to stay in their own country.
Understand that we are making progress and it will take some time. Rome wasn’t built in a day and it will take some time for a country that has been messed up for 300 years to finally make strides. We have made significant social progress in reducing social evils, somehow managed to utilize our labour force(albeit abroad) despite having virtually no opportunites at home, undertaken massive projects in the energy sector all by ourselves and were one of the fastest growing economies in Asia pre-covid. We graduated from the list of least developed countries after decades of staying there within just a few years of political stability. Our road and transport network is now expanding rapidly although work needs to be done on the quality of it just like evrything else here but we’ll figure that out with some time and money.
Here are a few things that we need to get rid of:
Federalism: While local governments have functioned relatively well(still need a few regulations and stuff), provinces have only turned out to be a hefty expense. They have no real rights and even if they had, wouldn’t be able to undertake anything fruitful by the looks of it. There is no real question of national liberation in Nepal so the whole idea is kinda flawed in our context. Our population is not all that big so having a separate level of government between the local levels and the center isn’t really necessary. We can mange without it.
Person-worship: I call it jhole’ys calling each other jholeys’ syndrome. It is totally normal for people to support someone while being sane and even while crticizing some things they do, it’s called critical support. But people here seem to be too dumb to understand this. It’s always a binary case for them and they’ll come for your life the moment you disagree the slightest. Luckily, this isn’t that big of a problem as our politicians do nothing other than being the chief guest at inaugurations of the projects. It helps that they have no real brains to plan anything which makes sure that more sane minds at the planning comission and ministries’ departments can take care of the planning and the politicians can only take credit.
Halting of projects: This is where politicians play the dirty role. At nearly every project other than the ones of national pride, the budget gets stuck at the middle somehow. The approval of huge sums of be allocated does come down to the politicians(ministers) and sometimes they’ll halt one project to get something done in their own constituency. This doesn’t sound technical and is a bit poorly-worded but the ins-and-outs are a bit complicated.
I don’t even know why I wrote all this.
Are people in the country still disillusioned as to the lack of taxation as a form of lack of money to develop the nation?
The government prints money out of this air as an automatic taxation to anyone that has money in the bank or works pay check to pay check. That is why people buy assests like land because the value sky rockets relatively speaking.
Nepal will probably go down the extreme money inflation slide, and people will occupations outside of Nepal, or ones that have money to invest will be ok.
Most people will probably hate me for this, but Nepal should allow for foreign investments from nations like America, UK, Singapore. Allow people of those citizens to buy land and operate businesses.
Nepal maa mahina ko 2 lakh kamauney pani bidesh jaanchhu vanchha. Testaa le gardaa ho desh agadi na badney. You are the hope of country but you want to post Starbucks story!!!
Stop Moving towards Chinese Debt trap and make friends with your neighbours. Learn from Bangladesh.
In detail…
Nepal’s huge remittance bubble…
https://www.reddit.com/r/Nepal/comments/15w6c8m/nepals_huge_remittance_bubble_rising_debts_and/